Hillary Clinton Grinding It Out

Hillary Clinton is not in the 2008 presidential race yet, but many polls and political rankings put her in first place for the Democratic nomination. Chuck Todd of The National Journal has ranked the Republican and Democratic candidates; here's what he's says about Hillary Clinton:

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton (last ranking: 1)

The best thing to happen to Clinton may be the rise of Obama, because for the time being, the glare is off of her while she readies herself for a run. Sure, she’ll get incredible scrutiny, but it will be nowhere near the scrutiny she’d be getting if Obama wasn’t sharing the "gee whiz" stage right now. Still, the Obama buzz ought to scare her for this reason: There's clearly a hunger (be it in the media, the Democratic establishment or even among actual voters) for an alternative to Clinton. These Democrats probably won't dump her for just any Christopher Dodd, Bill Richardson or John Edwards that comes along, but for a guy like Obama, it's tempting.

Clinton can't just keep grinding this out. The earlier she gets in, the better. As John Kerry (D) proved in '03-'04, it's better to get your bad months out of the way early and then be a comeback candidate later in the year. She can survive a long campaign better than most front-runners and ought to see that as an advantage. Don't be surprised if she fires things up a bit sooner than Bush's '99 playbook (which Clinton folks seem to like) calls for.

First, I wouldn't underestimate John Edwards. Like Al Gore, Edwards is already influencing the 2008 race by speaking up on a number of issues (for that matter, Biden, who has the least chance of winning, also is affecting the 2008 election by calling Bush out on Bush's disgraceful plan to pass the Iraq problem on to the next president). And I wouldn't underestimate Barack Obama's ability to speak in a way that resonates with the times as if he understands more clearly than others the powerful need for a new approach.

As for Hillary, grinding it out, in my opinion, is not going to get her to the White House. In California, we've had Democrats 'grind it out' in runs for governor and it doesn't work. Crossing your t's and dotting your i's and carefully listening to pollsters and consultants tends to turn candidates into mush.

These are not the 1990s. Times are changing. Even in the last election, paying a lot of attention to campaign contributors with deep pockets is no longer working all that well for Republicans; it's not likely to work well for Democrats if they ignore rank and file activists whether those activists are moderates, liberals, union members, soccer moms or young people looking for a future. Sometimes Hillary is able to show flashes of brilliance but those flashes have to infuse the spirit of her campaign somehow. Here's a clue about Hillary's chances: when she finally decides to run, will she sound any different than she does now? Will she stir up excitement? Will she make people stop and think about what she is saying? Will she motivate people to join her campaign? That's the challenge she faces.