The Perils of Conventional Wisdom

One of the things I'm learning about the presidential candidates, whether Republican or Democrat, is that various sources don't seem to spend much time learning who the candidates are. But they're very good at picking the conventional wisdom about candidates. I doubt that does the voters much good.

Here's an example of too much conventional wisdom from Ken Rudin of NPR's Political Junkie:

On paper, this should be a wide-open race for the nomination. But there is suddenly the realization that if your first name is not Hillary or Barack, it will be very difficult to get noticed. And that may be behind Bayh's decision to not run.

The star power of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) has never been in question. Instead, the great unknown was who would be the alternative? ...

(snip)

Then, some 10 days after Warner said no, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois said on NBC's Meet the Press that he was leaving the door open for a possible run. ...

It might be worth mentioning that the first primary is over a year away. I suspect the voters will be reluctant to annoint someone, or even two people, before the first vote. Of course, the Republicans pretty much did that to George W. Bush seven years ago and look at what a fiasco he's been.



The Center for Media and Democracy offers a rundown on both Democratic and Republican candidates with links to a quick sketch of each candidate. There's some minor omissions (they ignore Mike Gravel) but it's worth a quick look. They say Condoleezza Rice has bailed out; I confess I didn't know that but then I never took her seriously anyway.

Joe Biden, by the way, had a trip to New Hampshire over the weekend and he's all but in the race and expects to make a formal announcement in the next few weeks.