Presidential Poll in Iowa Ignores Experts

The 'experts' said Vilsack should do well in Iowa, that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would be close behind and Edwards and the rest would be somewhere in the mix. Now it's early and these things can shift very easily, but John Edwards leads the poll in Iowa; here's the story from Jane Norman of the Des Moines Register (hat tip to Eric Kleefield of TPM Cafe):

John Edwards came out far ahead of the rest of the pack of possible Democratic presidential candidates in a poll of Iowa Democrats conducted in October by an environmental group and released Wednesday.

Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina and the second-place finisher in the 2004 caucuses, was picked as the early preference of 36 percent of likely caucusgoers in the survey.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York came in second with 16 percent.

Third was Sen. Barack Obama with 13 percent, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack trailed in fourth place at 9 percent.

Early numbers don't mean much but it should be noted that John Kerry won Iowa in 2004 and his numbers are very small this time. And of course if Tom Vilsack finds his voice as so many candidates have done in the year before the primaries, Vilsack's numbers could improve.

The real key to Iowa is turning out the caucus voters on a cold winter night. Anything can happen in the next twelve months.