Thursday, April 27, 2006

World Oil Reserves: What Are the Actual Numbers?

One of the problems with knowing how much of an energy crisis the world faces or doesn't is knowing how much proven reserves the oil-producing countries have. Some countries are open about their figures and some countries aren't. Critics of OPEC point out that the reserves announced by some OPEC members cannot be verified thus begging the question of whether new oil finds can keep up with rising demands for oil.

Apparently some Kuwaitis would like to know the answer to how much oil reserves Kuwait has (bold emphasis mine):
Five lawmakers yesterday filed a draft law calling on the government to limit oil production in line with actual proven reserves, which have been claimed to be lower than the officially stated figure of 100 billion barrels. The four-article bill stipulates that the new production figure should not exceed the percentage of actual output in the past two fiscal years divided by proven reserves. The bill was signed by MPs Ahmad Al-Saadoun, Mussallam Al-Barrak, Mohammad Al-Khalifa, Hassan Jowhar and Waleed Al-Jari, all members of the Popular Action Bloc.

The draft law was filed in light of the controversy raised recently on the actual size of proven Kuwaiti oil reserves after the Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported in January that Kuwaiti reserves were only half of the announced figure of 100 billion barrels. PIW also claimed that proven reserves amounted only to 24.2 billion barrels, citing internal Kuwaiti records it claimed it had seen.

The government of Kuwait apparently denies the allegations and offers its reasons which may be valid or may be spin. I don't know the answer. Instead of wasting time dismantling the UN, perhaps Bush should push for a worldwide agreement for more openness in oil data and a system to verify the data. Without proper data, it's difficult to know just how much trouble we can expect in the near term. Congress too should be looking for meaningful solutions instead of grandstanding for the cameras. Truly productive hearings on energy issues would be useful instead of the usual Republican rhetoric. The attitude of Bush and the Republican leadership remains puzzling since I would imagine that Republican rank and file would like to know the answers just as much as anyone else.

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